The latest survey results of the semiannual ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast, prepared by the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate, show economists that global growth and stability are less optimistic compared to six months ago. However, as figures show, there will be better real estate conditions in the long run and in a period of three years the United States is not expected to have a downturn.
According to Urban Land, from the survey conducted by 48 real estate economists in late August and September 2015, the following are the notable forecasts pertaining to real estate for the period of 2015-2017.
First, the overall real estate capital markets are wide open, and commercial real estate transaction volumes are projected to be at an average $503 billion over the next three years. Hand in hand, debt and equity capital are abundant and competition will be stiff for most promoted properties.
Second, commercial real estate prices as measured by the Moody's/RCA Index are likely to rise by 6.8 percent per year, compared with a long-standing average increase of 5.4 percent.
Third, the hotel industry is projected to have the highest growth with an average per available room (RevPAR) gains of 6 percent from 2015 to 2017. Rental properties for Office and Warehouse purposes are also expected to rise by 4 percent per year.
Fourth, commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) issuance is also projected to increase to $140 billion in 2017, compared with a 20-year average of $71 billion, but will stay just below the pre-global financial crisis peak of $229 billion.
For the real estate sector, according to Urban Land, despite the projected increases, economists are concerned that investment trust (REIT) returns, retail occupancy rates, and housing starts are all projected to fall below their long-term averages.
On the other hand, retail vacancy rates will remain above average because store closings and economical consumers are expected to look into space demand, while vacancy rates of all other property types are projected below long-term averages. Lastly, there is an observed increase in the single-family housing sector over the past six months.
