President-elect Donald Trump may have won the 2024 election after getting a boost from voters fed up with the country's housing affordability crisis.
That is according to findings from an analysis conducted by NBC News, which studied election returns and the NBC News Home Buyer Index.
That analysis found that the top 10% of counties with the toughest housing markets in the United States moved toward Trump by 4.5 percentage points. The top 20% of counties with the toughest housing markets also shifted toward Trump by 4.2 percentage points.
In comparison, the nationwide median of counties that moved toward the Republican side due to housing affordability concerns was 3.1 percentage points, the analysis noted.
Furthermore, nearly a third of the counties in the US had margins that separated the Democratic and Republican parties by just over one percentage point, which may have proved decisive in key swing areas.
"This was economics," political science professor Robert Shapiro told the outlet. "The price of housing figures into this heavily."
Which Counties Saw the Largest Shift in Vote?
Of all counties in the US, Yuma County in Arizona had the largest shift in vote in the 2024 election, with voters moving toward Trump by 23.0 percentage points. Overall, 64.1% voted for the former President.
This was followed by Imperial County, CA, with a shift of 21.5 percentage points; Elkhart County, IN, with 21.3 percentage points; Passaic County, NJ, 19.6 points; and Middlesex County, NJ, 17.7 points.
How Can Trump Solve Housing Affordability?
During his campaign, Trump promised he was going to open up tracks of federal land for housing construction. If done, this can help ease the housing shortage crisis in the US. As of mid-2023, the country is short by four mission homes, per the National Association of Realtors.
He also vowed to slash regulations and permit requirements, both of which can add to homebuying costs.
That said, some of his promises can exacerbate the affordability crisis. Proposals like mass deportations of illegal immigrants and tighter border control could lead to a shortage of construction workers, which then impacts housing affordability, according to CNBC.
His proposal to raise tariffs on all imports could also increase the cost of raw building materials. This will make it more expensive to build and renovate homes.
