According to the US Geological Survey, the next couple of decades will be critical for the state of California for it could test the region's preparedness against a probable occurrence of an 8.0-magnitude or possibly even stronger earthquake, CBS San Francisco reports.
The Weather Channel confirms that the stat comes from Third Uniform Earthquake Rupture Forecast or UCERF3. The study is the result of a collaboration of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Southern California Earthquake Center, the California Geological Survey and the California Earthquake Authority.
CBS San Francisco reports that a study, conducted by UCERF3, predicts where in California these earthquakes could likely hit. The lead proponent of the study, Ned Field, relates to CBS San Francisco, "The new likelihoods are due to the inclusion of possible multi-fault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously."
Field also claims that their study "is a significant advancement in terms of representing a broader range of earthquakes throughout California's complex fault system."
In other words, as Los Angeles Times states, "the increase estimate was because of the growing understanding that earthquakes aren't limited to separate faults" rather it can "start on one fault and jump to others".
Thus, the outcome could be multiple faults rupturing in a simultaneous mega-quake. Results of the research points to the increased likelihood of 8.0 earthquakes or stronger, from 4.7 to 7 percent.
CBS Francisco says that according to the study, there is higher earthquake probability in Southern San Andres and a lower chance in Northern San Andres. Some regions with higher probability than Northern San Andres are the Hayward-Rodgers Creek and the Calaveras.
However, the study says there is a lower chance of an earthquake around magnitude 6.7. By about 30%, the probability is reduced from one every 4.8 years to one every 6.3 years, Time reports.
Earthquake Preparedness
Tom Jordan, the co-author of the study and the Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center states, "The UCERF3 model provides our leaders and the public with improved information about what to expect, so that we can [do] better."
Aside from having an emergency kit, what can we do to prepare our homes for such earthquakes?
Advocate to Retrofit Homes
According to OMSI, we must all advocate for retrofititng of our homes. This includes involving the developers and government officials to implement laws to check if all the structures within the area are compliant with the building codes. After all, quality is more important than quantity.
Have Earthquake Drills Regularly
All members of a community should perform regular earthquake drills. Know which areas should be kept open. If there is a designated area for a village for everyone to gather, make that area clear and minimize new developments in the area.
Know Evacuation Routes
According to OMSI, citizens must know their evacuation routes, especially those living near the coastline. In addition, residents of coastline homes must know the warning signs of a tsunami.
Check Electrical Wiring and Gas Connections
Ready.gov says that electrical wirings in homes must be checked regularly so as to avoid more damages post-earthquake. Repair faulty wirings and gas leaks. Install flexible tubings because they are more resistant to breakage.
